Paired comparison of visions for the future among young pastoralists and students in Samburu, Kenya

Land fragmentation, population growth, climate change and modernization are creating challenges for traditional pastoral livelihoods worldwide. These changes are forcing many young pastoralists to make new types of decisions about their future. In our study in the Samburu region of Kenya, we conducted a paired comparison about preferences for the future by adolescent male pastoralists, who practice herding as their primary livelihood, and their male peers who attend secondary school in lieu of herding. Participants were presented with all possible pairings of 15 options that represented a mix of traditional and contemporary livelihoods and traditions, and asked to select their preference between each pairing. Results were tabulated to elicit a ranked preference list of one (1) to 15. Results indicate strong favourability by both herders and students toward education for their future children as well as a desire to work for community conservancies. Beyond those commonalities, however, student and herders differed significantly. Students generally rated non-pastoral options highest, and their ratings had a high level of within-group agreement. In contrast, herders were more mixed about options for their future, with both pastoral and non-pastoral options receiving a diversity of ratings from very high to very low. These conclusions raise questions about the future of pastoralism in Samburu, and the identity and cultural roles of young male herders for the future.