Long-run and short-run determinants of CO₂ emissions in African countries: Roles of globalization, renewable energy, and growth

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThis study investigates the long-run and short-run determinants of CO₂ emissions in African countries, with a particular focus on the roles of globalization, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for 24 African countries over 1990–2021. Using a panel ARDL framework with PMG, MG, and DFE estimators, we estimate both short-run and long-run relationships and conduct co-integration, cross-section dependence, and robustness checks. The PMG long-run estimates confirm an Environmental Kuznets Curve: GDP has a positive long-run elasticity of 0.237 with CO₂ (p < 0.01), while its square indicates a turning point; renewable energy reduces emissions (long-run elasticity −0.158, p < 0.01); globalization (KOF index) is associated with higher emissions (elasticity 0.350, p < 0.01). Non-renewable energy results are sensitive to estimator choice. Error-correction terms are negative and significant, indicating adjustment to the long-run equilibrium. Results are robust to alternative specifications and subsamples. Policy implications include accelerating renewable deployment and adopting trade and investment policies that favor cleaner technologies to align growth with climate objectives.