Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in Mali

Abstract This study examined the total, direct and indirect effects of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) on crop yields maize in a given region and in neighbouring regions, through a spatial panel analysis of five administrative regions of Mali over a 30-year period (1988 - 2017). Our results show that temperature and rainfall have direct, indirect and total effects on maize yields. In other words, the effect on regions closely linked to the region where the change in temperature or rainfall occurred will be greater than the effect on more remote regions. In addition, the coefficient of variation of precipitation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation as well as the area sown all have negative impacts on maize yields. However, maize yields are negatively correlated with drought. This means that maize production in the local area is declining as a result of increased extreme weather events. Based on these findings, policy makers need to take into account that conditions in the surrounding areas can influence maize yields and that spillover effects differ between crop types. Investments in agricultural research and development should be encouraged to counteract the effects of climate change.