Statistical Joint Modeling on Longitudinal Body Weight and CD4 Cell Progression with Survival Time-To-Death Predictors on HIV/AIDS Patients in Mekelle General Hospital, Ethiopia

Abstract Background: This study assessed the impact of repeated biomarker measurements of statistical joint modeling on survival time-to-death and determines potential predictors of HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Mekelle General Hospital Ethiopia.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among HIV/AIDS patients who were under ART follow-up during September 11, 2013 - September 5, 2016 at Mekelle General Hospital, Ethiopia. Results: The relationship between the two biomarkers CD4 cell and body weight with risk for survival time-to-death were statistical insignificant.Thus, death is less probable to occur in HIV/AIDS patients with higher value of CD4 cell count andbody weight progression. In event process the sub-model, Baseline CD4, Fair andGood Adherence, HIV/TB (yes) and Sex (male) were significant factors of risk to short survival Time-to-Death on HIV/AIDS patients. In the 1st longitudinal process sub-model, Baseline CD4, Ambulatory functional status, HIV/TB (yes), Time*Ambulatory functional status, Time*Working functional status and Time*Baseline CD4 were the significant factors of Bcount progression. Moreover, In 2nd longitudinal process sub-model, visit Time of follow-up, Age, Sex (male), Baseline weight, Time*Ambulatory and Time*Working functional status were the significant factors of log 10(body weight) progression.Conclusion: Both governmental and non-governmental stakeholders should pay special attention for HIV positive adults, especially for those who had developed HIV/TB, male, bedridden functional status, poor adherence and lower Baseline CD4 cell count progression so that mortality due to HIV/AIDS optimally reduced.