A Population-Based Threshold of Protection for COVID-19 Vaccines

Abstract Correlates of protection for COVID-19 vaccines are urgently needed to license and deploy additional vaccines. We measured immune responses to four COVID-19 vaccines of proven efficacy using a single serological platform calibrated to the international standard. IgG anti-Spike antibodies correlated significantly with efficacies for original virus and alpha variant and were highly correlated with ID50 neutralization in a validated pseudoviral assay. The protective threshold for each vaccine was calculated for IgG anti-Spike antibody. The mean protective threshold for all vaccine studies was 154 BAU/ml (95%CI 42-559), and for the vaccine studies with antibody distributions that enabled precise estimation of thresholds (i.e. leaving out 2-dose mRNA studies) was 60 BAU/ml (95%CI 35-102). We propose that the proportion of individuals with responses above the appropriate protective threshold together with the geometric mean concentration can be used in comparative non-inferiority studies with licensed vaccines to ensure that new vaccines will be efficacious.