Crop diversification as a climate-smart agriculture strategy and household welfare in Nigeria: evidence from living standard measurement survey

Crop diversification is a climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practice with well-documented yield and agroecological benefits, but rigorous, nationally representative evidence on its welfare impacts in Nigeria remains scarce. This study examined the determinants and welfare effects of crop diversification adoption among 3,229 farm households, using the fourth wave of Nigeria’s Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). A probit model identified the determinants of adoption, and an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model, which corrects for selection bias arising from observed and unobserved heterogeneity, estimated the causal impact of adoption on household per capita consumption expenditure and dietary diversity. About 1,846 households (57%) adopted crop diversification. Household size, farm size, age of household head, distance to road, fertilizer use, and temperature exposure significantly increased the probability of adoption, while education, distance to market, access to finance, and rainfall shock significantly reduced it. Adoption increased per capita consumption expenditure by an average treatment effect of 0.72 log points and household dietary diversity scores by 2.03 points among adopters, effects that are large relative to national poverty and dietary diversity benchmarks. These results indicate that limited market access, credit products tied to specialized cropping, and climate shocks jointly suppress adoption. Government agricultural and nutrition agencies should jointly fund a targeted program that redesigns credit products to support diversified cropping, pairs rural road investment with market access, and bundles diversification advice with climate information and weather-index insurance in drought-prone areas.