Analysis of hydroclimatic trends and variability and their impacts on hydropower generation in two river basins in Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa) during 1981–2017

Abstract Climate change (CC) and variability impacts on hydroelectric generation have become critical for hydropower management. The trends of inflow, outflow, reservoir water level, and storage as well as hydraulicity indices of three main dams in Côte d’Ivoire, namely Kossou and Taabo in the Bandama basin and Buyo in the Sassandra basin were examined during 1981–2017 and their impacts on hydropower generation were analyzed. Moreover, the hydropower generation sensitivity to CC of these dams was assessed using statistical analysis. The results reveal that the inflow is highly dependent on rainfall while the water level is highly influenced by the outflow, which is a function of the inflow to the reservoirs and water management policy. Furthermore, the Mann Kendall test revealed that temperature and potential evapotranspiration have increased significantly in all three sub-basins while precipitation shows a significant upward trend only within the Taabo dam catchment area. Meanwhile, inflow to reservoir increased significantly and greatly than precipitation probably due to land use/cover change. Precipitation and inflow show a strong correlation as energy generation is significantly and strongly correlated to outflow (inflow) in all stations (except Kossou). Furthermore, the energy generation at Buyo and Taabo dams is more sensitive to reservoir inflow, while that of Kossou dam is more affected by water level. In addition, the power of a given year is also dependent on the total rainfall of that year and/or the previous year depending on the plant.