Modelling Nigeria Male Mortality Using Functional Data Time Series Analysis Approach.

Abstract Incidence and mortality rates are considered as a guideline for planning public health strategies and allocating resources. Several methods have been proposed and used for modeling mortalities of various countries. Among the leading mortality, models are the Lee-Carter model which has been used in various countries and adjudged to fit the mortality of these countries well. But it came with its own limitations as the model was used in a more developed nation. In this research work, we propose functional data analysis techniques to model Nigerian Male mortality using the data obtained from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics from 1998-2010. We compared the results obtained using some parameters such as MAPE and MSE. From the results, we discovered that the improvement of the parameters of our model shows that it is better than the Lee-Carter model in analyzing Nigerian Male Mortality.