Tax Revenue Components and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis (2015–2024)

Abstract This study examines the effect of tax revenue components on federal government revenue generation in Nigeria for the period 2015–2024. Specifically, it evaluates the contributions of Company Income Tax (CIT), Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Value Added Tax (VAT), and Customs and Excise Duties (CED) to federal revenue collection. The study adopts an ex post facto research design; secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (CBN, 2024) and analysed using multiple regression. Findings reveal that CIT (β = 0.207, p = 0.0094) and VAT (β = 0.569, p = 0.0355) have statistically significant positive effects on federal revenue generation, while PPT and CED, though positively associated with revenue, are statistically insignificant at the five percent level. The overall model is statistically significant (F = 20.74, p = 0.004), with an adjusted R² of 0.868, indicating that the predictor variables account for approximately 87 percent of the variation in federal revenue during the period under review. The study concludes that CIT and VAT are the primary drivers of federal revenue in Nigeria. It recommends sustained policy attention to strengthening tax administration and compliance in CIT and VAT, broadening the tax base to improve PPT and CED receipts, and deploying digital tools to enhance overall revenue mobilisation.