Global Stability and Sensitivity Assessment of COVID-19 with Timely and Delayed Diagnosis in Ghana

Abstract In this paper, we present the dynamical effects of timely and delayed diagnosis on the spread of COVID-19 in Ghana, using reported data from March 12 to June 19, 2020. The estimated basic reproduction number, R_0, for the proposed model is 1.04. One of the main focus of this study is stability results and senesitity assessment of the parameters. We show both theoretically and numerically that, the disease can be eliminated when the basic reproduction number is less or equal to a unity. Furthermore, we show that the disease persist whenever R_0>1 or whenever there is a delay in the diagnoses of infected individuals in the community. To assess the most influential parameters in the basic reproduction number, we carried out global sensitivity analysis. The scatter plots and the partial rank correlation coefficient reveal that, the most positive sensitive parameter is the recruitment rate, followed by the relative transmissibility of exposed individuals; and that the most negative sensitive parameters are the proportion of the infectious with timely diagnosis, and the transition rate of self-quarantined individuals to the susceptible population. For public health benefit, our analysis suggests that, a reduction in the inflow of new individuals into the country or a reduction in the inter community inflow of individuals will reduce the basic reproduction number and thereby reduce the number of secondary infections (multiple peaks of the infection).