A cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 critical care interventions in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a modeling study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate and compare the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 critical care intervention approaches: noninvasive (oxygen without intubation) and invasive (intubation) management in Ethiopia. METHODS: A Markov model is used to compare the costs and outcomes for non-invasive and invasive COVID-19 clinical interventions using both primary and secondary data sources. Healthcare provider costs (recurrent and capital cost) and patient-side costs (direct and indirect) were estimated and reported in United States Dollars (US$), 2021. The outcome measure used in this analysis was DALYs averted. Both the average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were reported. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to assess the robustness of the findings. The analysis is conducted using Tree Age pro health care software 2022. RESULT: The average cost per patient per episode for mild/moderate, severe, noninvasive, and invasive critical management was $951, $3449, $5514, and $6500, respectively. According to the average cost-effective ratio (ACER), non-invasive management resulted in $1991 per DALY averted, while invasive management resulted in $3998 per DALY averted. Similarly, the incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) of invasive compared to noninvasive management was $ 4948 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION: Clinical management of critical COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia is associated with a significant financial burden. Invasive intervention is unlikely to be a cost-effective COVID-19 intervention in Ethiopia compared to noninvasive critical case management using a willingness to pay threshold of three times GDP per capita.