Economic Modelling of the Delay in Passing the Petroleum Industry Bill in Nigeria and Its Impact on Deep Offshore Investments and Government Take Statistics

Abstract The petroleum industry bill (PIB) in Nigeria aims to reform the petroleum sector of the country and increase government revenue from petroleum investments. Despite the benefits the bill offers to the country, its passage has suffered several setbacks. This research therefore studied the impact of the delay in passing the bill on deep offshore investments. Economic models were built using the fiscal terms in PIB 2009 and 1993 production sharing contract (PSC) arrangement to evaluate the impact of the bill. The model with the 1993 PSC fiscal terms was adjusted to capture the delay in passing the bill. The bill was assumed to be passed on a yearly basis for 10 years (2010 to 2019). The impact of the delay in passing the bill based on the reserve portfolio of firms in the deep offshore region of the country was also evaluated. The delay in passing the PIB reduced the government take. It was seen that for the non-passage of the bill, the government lost about $1227.2 MM. When the bill was passed in 2019, the government had been losing about $11.843 MM on a yearly basis due to the delay in passing the bill.