Climate variability and the pastoralist’s dilemma: socio-economic impacts on livestock systems in East Africa

Climate variability poses a significant threat to livestock production and livelihoods in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda. This paper uses a cross-sectional study and systematic literature review to investigate the socio-economic effects of various climate stressors, including rainfall variability, increasing temperatures, and frequent drought events, on livestock production in these countries from 2021 through to 2025. The results suggest that high temperature-humidity indices (THIs), coupled with fluctuating rainfall patterns, impact animal health. This leads to reduced milk production, low fertility rates, poor physical condition, and increased mortality due to dehydration and energy deficiency. These biophysical effects result in economic losses, malnutrition, loss of resources and increased conflict among pastoral communities, thus exacerbating the ‘pastoralist’s dilemma’. Although pastoral communities employ adaptive strategies such as mobility, herd diversity, and livelihood diversification, these measures are increasingly challenged by the limited availability of resources. It is ultimately argued that indigenous knowledge alone is insufficient for the long-term sustainability of adaptation efforts, and that there is a need to develop climate-smart pastoralism. This would involve adopting indigenous practices alongside modern innovations such as early warning systems, satellite technology for vegetation monitoring, index-based livestock insurance and efficient water supply systems.