Beyond Coal: Sectoral Mapping and Diversification Potential in East Kalimantan

East Kalimantan remains dependent on mining and quarrying, which accounted for 44.39% of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) in 2025, and the relocation of Indonesia’s capital (Nusantara) has made new growth sources urgent. This study identifies the base, potential, and leading sectors of East Kalimantan in 2016–2025 as input for the 2025–2029 development plan. BPS data on national GDP and provincial GRDP at constant 2010 prices by industry, with 2024 preliminary and 2025 very preliminary, are analyzed with the Location Quotient and Dynamic LQ, the Growth Ratio Model, and classic and Esteban-Marquillas shift-share, synthesized in a modified overlay whose four criteria are each compared with unity; the decomposition is repeated for three sub-periods and re-estimated on 2016–2023 final data. Mining remains the only base sector (mean LQ 6.01) but sits in a nationally slow-growing industry producing almost the entire negative industry-mix effect. Among non-mining sectors, trade and education are competitive in every sub-period and partition tested, gaining IDR 7,531.72 and 1,294.48 billion, ahead of accommodation (755.70) and electricity and gas (172.64), which are partition-dependent. On final data the base sector, all 17 quadrant memberships, and 14 competitive signs hold; mining’s competitive component turns negative. The contribution is empirical and methodological: it corrects a redundancy in the conventional overlay and tests every classification against a final-data window, three partitions, and four aggregation rules. These diagnostics capture concentration and growth, not linkages, employment, or fiscal transmission; linkage strength is not measured, the economy remains highly concentrated in mining, and diversification is the central challenge.