Integrated Input-Output and Systems Analysis Modelling: The Case of Tunisia.Part 1 - Energy technology Input-Output multipliers

Abstract This paper examines four simple stereotypical electricity-sector investments and estimates selected direct and indirect job impacts. To do so, the analysis focuses on the development of a simple Input-Output model and generic financial descriptions of energy efficiency and renewable energy interventions. These are applied to the Tunisian electricity sector. Sensitivities are developed around the assumptions required to calibrate the resulting financial flows. All aspects of this analysis are open source and drawing from ubiquitously available social accounting matrices, with the aim of increasing their scalability and lowering the threshold of energy-economy modelling. This analysis is used to develop intermediate data for a dynamic systems model as well as to produce selected policy insights. They relate to: the payback period associated with energy efficiency investments; local content; capital intensity; and implications on gas (for power generation) imports. Associated with this are policy recommendations that relate to the choice of new power generation, the scheduling of energy efficiency programs and defining future data needs to better calibrate the analysis of those interventions.