Exploring long-term electrification pathway dynamics: a case study of Ethiopia

Abstract The Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) is extended to provide a long-term geospatial electrification analysis of Ethiopia, focusing on the role of grid- and off-grid technologies to increase residential electricity access under different scenarios. Furthermore, the model explores issues of compatibility between the electricity supply technologies over time. Six potential scenarios towards universal access to electricity in the country are examined based on three pathways; the Ambition pathway sees high demand growth and universal access achieved by 2025, the Slow Down pathway follows a lower demand growth with a slower electrification rate and with a higher share of off-grid technologies, and the Big Business pathway prioritizes grid electricity first for the industrial sector, leading to slower residential electrification. The results show a large focus on grid extension and stand-alone PV deployment for least-cost electrification in case of low grid-generation costs and uninhibited grid expansion. However, in case of a slower grid rollout rate and high demand growth, a more dynamic evolution of the supply system is seen, where mini-grids play an important role in transitional electrification. Similarly, in the case where grid electricity generation comes at a higher cost, mini-grids prove to be cost-competitive with the centralized grid in many areas. Finally, we also show that transitional mini-grids, which are later incorporated into the centralized grid, risk increasing the investments significantly during the periods when these are integrated and mini-grid standards are not successfully implemented. In all cases, existing barriers to decentralized technologies must be removed to ensure off-grid technologies are deployed and potentially integrated with the centralized grid as needed.