Agricultural Employment in Somalia: The Nexus of Climate Change, Conflict, and Agricultural Productivity

Agriculture is central to Somalia's economy, employing nearly half of the population and serving as a key source of rural livelihoods.However, the sector is increasingly undermined by climate change, deforestation, and armed conflict.In a context marked by high unemployment and institutional fragility, understanding how these challenges affect agricultural employment is essential for policy design.This study aims to analyze the shortand long-run effects of climate change (rainfall, temperature, CO 2 emissions, and deforestation), conflict (internal and external), and agricultural productivity (crop and livestock production) on agricultural employment in Somalia between 1991-2022.Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models, the study captures dynamic interactions while addressing endogeneity and model robustness through stability and diagnostic tests.The results show that rising temperatures and CO 2 emissions significantly reduce agricultural employment, while deforestation contributes to long-term job losses by degrading arable land.Rainfall variability supports employment in the short run but lacks long-term significance.Internal conflict exhibits a paradoxical stabilizing effect due to labor immobility, while external conflict leads to displacement and labor market disruption.Livestock production emerges as a consistent driver of rural employment, whereas crop production remains stagnant and fails to absorb labor.By integrating environmental and political stressors within a unified econometric framework, this study contributes to the literature on employment dynamics in fragile contexts.The findings underscore the need for climate-resilient farming practices, conflict-sensitive rural development, reforestation, and investment in the livestock sector to safeguard livelihoods and promote economic resilience in Somalia.