Selection tests and their predictive value in university nursing students’ success in the first year of study

Abstract Background Academic performance factors such as school-leaving grades and other academic indicators for selection, play a significant role in student success. Purpose The study aimed to determine the predictors of academic success based on selection criteria for nursing studies at a South African university. Methods This retrospective study involves seven cohorts of first-time nursing students (n = 317). Hierarchical regression was used to explore important variables predicting success in the first year of study. The Chi-square tests were used to determine the association between progression outcome, NBT domains, and school quintiles. Results All predicting variables explained 35% of the variance in the first year of study. Most students’ entry-level skills according to the National Benchmark Test (NBT) were at Intermediate Lower level; the NBT MAT (Mathematics) and NBT AL (Academic Literacy) domains, and the National Senior Certificate (NSC) subject, Life Sciences are significant predictors of students passing the first year. Conclusion Selection test results predict areas where students are likely to encounter difficulties and inform the interventions needed to achieve academic success.