Using CLIMEX and MaxEnt models to simulate the influence of climate change on the global distribution of the ghost ant Tapinoma melanocephalum (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

The ghost ant, Tapinoma melanocephalum (Fabricius), is a globally distributed invasive species whose potential response to climate change remains poorly quantified. We applied MaxEnt and CLIMEX as complementary modeling approaches to estimate its current and future global climatic suitability. Both models showed acceptable performance and produced projections broadly consistent with the known distribution of T. melanocephalum. MaxEnt predicted widespread low climatic suitability, with high-suitability areas concentrated mainly in tropical and subtropical regions of Asia, Africa, and the Americas. CLIMEX identified extensive climatic suitability across South America, sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe. Moderate climatic suitability also extended into several temperate regions. Future MaxEnt projections under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 indicated substantial redistribution of climatic suitability during the 2050s and 2070s. Suitability increased across several temperate and higher-latitude regions but declined in some tropical areas. CLIMEX projections under RCP8.5 for 2040-2059 showed broadly similar shifts, although their magnitude varied among global climate models. These findings provide a global climatic baseline for identifying regions that may become increasingly suitable for establishment of T. melanocephalum. The projections can support targeted surveillance, early detection, and climate-informed management of this invasive ant.