COVID19 Sero-epidemiology and vaccine uptake in two Southern Nigerian clinics

Africa has reported lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality compared to other regions. Yet, the flat COVID-19 trajectory remains to be fully explained. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, accounted for less than 1% of global COVID-19 cases. The present study evaluated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, vaccine uptake, and methodological differences in serological threshold setting among febrile patients attending peri-urban and urban clinics in Southern Nigeria. Between October 2022 and February 2023, 745 febrile participants were recruited from Owo (Ondo State) and Ikorodu (Lagos State). Serum samples were tested for IgG antibodies against wild-type and variant SARS-CoV-2 antigens using a multiplex bead-based antibody assay. Seropositivity was calculated using two classification boundary methods: (i) the conventional three standard deviations above the mean of negative controls (3STDV) and (ii) the open-source SeroNIST tool. Vaccine uptake and risk factors for exposure were assessed. Vaccine uptake was 66.0% and significantly higher in peri-urban Owo (80.2%) than urban Ikorodu (52.6%, p-value < 0.0001). Increasing age was positively associated with vaccination (p-value < 0.0001). Sex, education, and religion did not influence vaccine uptake. Vaccinated individuals had significantly lower odds of being positive for anti-N SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (p-value = 0.001), indicating a potential protective effect of the vaccine. Age, education, and religion did not influence anti-N SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Overall, our study revealed high S/RBD-based seroprevalences for all variants except Omicron among the unvaccinated participants (range: 89.1% - 100%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Southern Nigeria was likely widespread and underrecognized, with high seroprevalence among symptomatic peri-urban and urban populations. Peri-urban communities demonstrated higher vaccine uptake than urban counterparts, and age-targeted campaigns likely drove uptake among older individuals. Further, our study detected a potential protective effect of the vaccine among the study population. Finally, standardized thresholding methods such as SeroNIST are critical for accurate seroprevalence estimates.